Publications

All publications from the ZEN Research Centre are financially supported by the Research Council of Norway through its funding scheme for Centres for Environment-friendly Energy Research (grant no. 257660) and the Centre’s partners.

Our latest scientific publications

All our publications

Korsnes, Marius (2019) Wind and Solar Energy Transition in China
New York: Routledge,

Woods, R., Berker, T., Baer, D. & Bø, L. A. (2019) ZEN living labs definition, ideas, and examples
ZEN Report 18,
NTNU/SINTEF,

Popular summary in English:

(Scroll nedover for norsk sammendrag)

Living labs are user centred initiatives where knowledge production involves individuals or user groups
affected by sustainable transitions. The FME Research Centre on Zero Emission Neighbourhoods in
Smart Cities (ZEN) has chosen living labs to secure user engagement and as a framework for the
organisation of user involvement in pilot projects. The report presents three main elements, firstly the
ZEN understanding of what a living lab is and how it may be applied within a ZEN neighbourhood.
Secondly, it offers examples of living labs that have inspired the ZEN use of the living lab concept, and
thirdly, it provides insight into how user participation has already taken place within ZEN pilot
neighbourhoods.

Historical and current applications of living labs are presented in the report, underlining the potential of
using the ZEN living lab concept. A ZEN living lab is an open, inclusive space that supports user
engagement with ZEN pilot projects, bridging the gap between the social and technical context. A ZEN
living lab should function as a creative arena for knowledge exchange, between people, places, and
technology. An arena that should ideally highlight learning processes. The ZEN living lab concept
includes four main elements:

1. Representatives from the different user groups affected by the sustainable neighbourhood
transition proposed by ZEN.
2. A clearly defined geographical place.
3. A set of iterative activities.
4. An experimental format based on the challenges and needs of the neighbourhood.

The definition of zero emission neighbourhoods applied by the ZEN Centre implies technical solutions
to the reduction of energy use and CO2 emissions. This definition implies a target-based application of
the living lab methodology: the testing of technical solutions as a means to achieve innovations within
the construction industry or the energy sector. The ZEN living lab concept proposes as less target based
understanding of the pilot projects, because any application of the living lab concept should not lose
sight of the primary aim, which is engaging with the user groups who will be affected by the changes
implied by the introduction of zero emission technology. This should take place in an open and inclusive
process where the results may be learned from but not necessarily measured.

 

Norsk sammendrag:

Living labs er brukersentrerte tiltak som har mål om å involvere ulike individer eller brukergrupper i
tekniske eller bærekraftig endringer i samfunnet. The FME Research Centre on Zero Emission
Neighbourhoods in Smart Cities (ZEN) har valgt living labs som et format til å organisere og sikre
brukerengasjement i pilotprosjekter. Hovedformålene med bruk av living labs i ZEN-pilotprosjekter er
å øke forståelsen blant ulike brukergrupper for ZENs målsettinger og til å støtte arbeidet med å realisere
bærekraftige endringer. Rapporten presenterer ZEN-definisjonen av hva en living lab er, og hvordan
den kan brukes i et ZEN-pilotområde. Rapporten gir også innsikt i brukermedvirkningsprosesser som
allerede har funnet sted innenfor ZEN-pilotområder og presenterer eksempler på living labs som har
inspirert ZEN-bruk av laboratoriekonseptet.

Rapporten understreker potensialet for å bruke ZEN living lab-konseptet. En ZEN living lab er et åpent
inkluderende format som støtter brukerengasjement i ZEN-pilotprosjekter. Hensikten med å benytte
living lab-konseptet er å bygge bro mellom den sosiale og tekniske konteksten. En ZEN living lab skal
fungere som en kreativ arena for kunnskapsutveksling mellom mennesker, steder og teknologi. En arena
som ideelt sett bør gir rom for læringsprosesser. En ZEN living lab skal inneholde fire hovedelementer:

1. Representanter fra de ulike brukergruppene som er berørt av bærekraftige endringer foreslått av ZEN.
2. Et klart definert geografisk sted.
4. Et sett av iterative aktiviteter.
3. Et eksperimentelt format basert på utfordringene og behovene i pilotprosjektet.

ZEN-definisjonen av null-utslippsområder fokuserer på tekniske løsninger for reduksjon av
energiforbruk og CO2-utslipp. Det er derfor en tendens til å benytte en målbasert living lab metodikk,
som testing av tekniske løsninger, som et middel for å oppnå innovasjoner innen byggebransjen eller
energisektoren. Enhver anvendelse av ZEN living lab konseptet bør imidlertid ikke miste fokuset på det
primære målet, som er å engasjere brukergruppene som vil bli påvirket av endringene som følger med
innføringen av nullutslippsteknologi. Dette bør være i form av en åpen og inkluderende prosess.


Backe, S., Sørensen, Å. L., Pinel, D., Clauß, J. Lausselet, C., & Woods, R. (2019) Consequences of local energy supply in Norway – A case study on the ZEN pilot project Campus Evenstad
ZEN Report 17,
NTNU/SINTEF,

Popular summary in English:

(Scroll nedover for norsk sammendrag)

 

Consequences and opportunities of local energy supply at Campus Evenstad

This report evaluates Campus Evenstad towards becoming a ZEN. The goal is to present which
measures are most relevant to realize ZEN goals related to energy and develop an understanding of
potential, consequences, value, and status related to operations and investments in the energy system
at Campus Evenstad. We evaluate consequences of achieving different degrees of on-site supply of
renewable energy. Four aspects are evaluated for the energy system: (1) Value creation and regulatory
framework, (2) future investments, (3) operational control and optimization, and (4) emission
reductions.

Local energy supply is most valuable when consumed in the neighborhood

Local power supply generates economic value mainly through saved costs of reduced grid import (i.e.
delivered electricity to the neighbourhood). Saved costs are achieved due to (1) less delivered
electricity, (2) reduced grid tariff, and (3) reduced taxes and levies as the billing is based on net
metering of delivered electricity.

We have investigated future investments in the energy system at Campus Evenstad by using a linear
programming model. The results show that investments in more PV is the most cost-efficient way of
achieving annual compensation of emissions. In addition, operational control through planned
charging of battery and electric vehicles or pre-heating space and water to reduce peak loads and
minimize operational costs should be prioritized.

Campus Evenstad should aim at self-consuming local energy resources to minimize emissions. This is
because the local energy resources are based on renewable resources that replaces energy supply based
on fossil fuels other places in Europe.

This report can be used to support decisions for Statsbygg at Campus Evenstad on its way towards
ZEN. More general, consequences of energy choices in a ZEN is investigated and will be relevant for
other ZEN partners. The report incorporates several work packages in FME ZEN and connects
economic, operational, and technical aspects in the development of a Zero Emission Neighbourhood.

 

Norsk sammendrag:

Konsekvenser og muligheter knyttet til lokal energiforsyning på Campus Evenstad

Denne rapporten vurderer Campus Evenstad på veien mot ZEN. Hensikten med rapporten er å vurdere
hvilke tiltak som er relevante fremover for å realisere energimål knyttet til ZEN, og den skal gi en
forståelse for potensial, konsekvens, verdi og status knyttet til ulike tiltak relatert til drift og
investeringer i energisystemet på Campus Evenstad. Vi trekker blant annet frem konsekvenser av ulik
grad av selvforsynt fornybar energi. Fire faktorer vurderes for energisystemet: (1) Verdiskaping og
regulatorisk rammeverk, (2) fremtidige investeringer, (3) driftsoptimalisering og styringssystemer og
(4) utslippsreduksjoner.

Lokal energiproduksjon er mest verdifull om den brukes innenfor nabolaget

Lokal elektrisitetsforsyning skaper økonomisk verdi hovedsakelig gjennom sparte kostnader som følge
av mindre behov for strømimport (i.e. levert elektrisitet til nabolaget). Det skapes verdi både gjennom
(1) redusert levert strøm, (2) redusert nettleie og (3) øvrige reduserte elavgifter siden alle disse leddene
av strømregningen baseres på netto strømforbruk.

Vi har undersøkt potensielle fremtidige investeringer i energisystemet for Campus Evenstad ved hjelp
av en optimeringsmodell. Våre analyser antyder at den mest kostnadseffektive måten å oppnå årlig
kompensering av utslipp på er gjennom investeringer i flere solceller. I tillegg bør driftsoptimalisering
gjennom planlagt ladning av batteri og elbiler eller foroppvarming av rom og vann for å redusere
topplaster og minimere driftskostnader prioriteres fremover.

Campus Evenstad bør i størst mulig grad benytte lokale enheter ved energiforsyning for å minimere
utslipp. Denne påstanden kan forsvares ved at de lokale enhetene kun er driftet på fornybare
energikilder som erstatter energi produsert med fossile energikilder andre steder i Europa.
Rapporten kan brukes til å støtte videre beslutninger for Statsbygg på Campus Evenstad på veien mot
ZEN. Den gir også innsikt i konsekvenser av energivalg generelt i ZEN som er relevant for øvrige
ZEN-partnere. Arbeidet spenner på tvers av ulike fagfelt innenfor FME ZEN og binder sammen
kunnskap knyttet til økonomiske, driftsmessige og tekniske aspekter ved utviklingen av et
nullutslippsnabolag.


Nielsen, B. F., Gohari, S., Glicher, E., Baer, D., & Situmorang, W. Z. (2019) Achieving citizen participation in smart cities: Five cross-roads in the planning of the +cityxChange project in Trondheim
Conference proceedings,
Proceedings of the First International Conference on Smart Cities in Seoul from July 17 – 19, 2019. (ICSC1),

Nielsen, B. F., Baer, D., Gohari, S. & Junker, E. (2019) The Potential of Design Thinking for Tackling the “Wicked Problems” of the Smart City
Conference proceedings,
Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Urban Planning, Regional Development and Information Society ,

E3S Web of Conferences,
volume 111,

Abstract

Energy flexibility of buildings can be used to reduce energy use and costs, peak power, CO2eq- emissions or to increase self-consumption of on-site electricity generation. Thermal mass activation proved to have a large potential for energy flexible operation. The indoor temperature is then allowed to fluctuate between a minimum and maximum value.

Many studies investigating thermal mass activation consider electric radiators. Nevertheless, these studies most often assume that radiators modulate their emitted power, while, in reality, they are typically operated using thermostat (on-off) control.

Firstly, this article aims at comparing the energy flexibility potential of thermostat and P-controls for Norwegian detached houses using detailed dynamic simulations (here IDA ICE). It is evaluated whether the thermostat converges to a P-control for a large number of identical buildings. As the buildings are getting better insulated, the impact of internal heat gains (IHG) becomes increasingly important. Therefore, the influence of different IHG profiles has been evaluated in the context of energy flexibility. Secondly, most studies about energy flexibility consider a single indoor temperature. This is questionable in residential buildings where people may want different temperature zones. This is critical in Norway where many occupants want cold bedrooms (~16°C) during winter time and open bedroom windows for this purpose.

This article answers to these questions for two different building insulation levels and two construction modes (heavy and lightweight).


Conference proceedings,
Advanced Studies in Energy Efficiency and Built Environment for Developing Countries Proceedings of IEREK Conferences: Improving Sustainability Concept in Developing Countries (ISCDC-2) ,

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess the gaps and needs for net-zero energy buildings (NZEBS) design and implementations in MENA Region, particularly in Egypt. The paper reviews current government efforts and regulations on energy efficiency in buildings, the academic efforts in developing NZEBs concept, as well as challenges and barriers in building design phases.

For illustration, the paper summarized study undertaken to analyze the potential challenges and opportunities for implement (NZEBs) in Egypt as an example of Mena region. Two case studies in Mena region E-JUST campus in Egypt and MASDAR City in UAE had been analyzed. The review and case studies show a lack of energy performance in Egyptian buildings code and optimization calculation methods, as well as limited numbers of academic work for NZEBs which studied the Egyptian case.

It is concluded that the current building codes and laws need to be upgraded to include the energy performance of buildings requirements, a database for buildings materials need to be developed with studies to the cost optimal for different buildings type in Egypt, one the challenges of the NZEBs in is the vernacular environment and enhancing the implementation procedures.


Frontiers in Built Environment,
volume 5,
issue 97,

Summary

Optimal ventilation strategies are fundamental to achieve net/nearly-zero energy buildings.

In this study, three hybrid ventilation control strategies are proposed to minimize the cooling need in an open-plan office building, located in the center of Glasgow (Scotland). The performance of the three proposals is assessed by IDA ICE (a whole building performance simulation tool) and compared to a traditional fully mechanical ventilation system.

The performance comparison includes different criteria (i.e., indoor temperature and predicated percentage of dissatisfied (PPD) for assessing the indoor comfort and CO2 level for assessing the indoor air quality).

The results show that the three proposed hybrid ventilation strategies are able to minimize the cooling need to zero. They can also imply a drastic reduction of AHU heating power, compared with a mechanical ventilation system without heat recovery (or with low efficiency heat recovery). In addition, they significantly save the fan energy.

The only drawback of the proposed strategies is that they might increase the space heating demand. For instance, the first and second strategies save about 75% and 50% of AHU (air handling unit) fan energy; however, the space heating increases by about 4.2 and 2.2 kWh/m2a, respectively. The third strategy features as the best proposal because it saves around 68% of fan energy with less increase (1.3 kWh/m2a) in space heating demand. Moreover, it ensures higher thermal comfort and indoor air quality levels compared to the first and second proposals.


Building and Environment,
volume 148,
pages 44-54,

Abstract

Registration, identification, and re-creation of an indoor occupant’s actions are challenges in the field of building energy performance. Commonly used measurement technologies are capable of capturing partial information regarding the occupants’ activity.

However, the combination of all existing inputs cannot grant access to a satisfying description of occupant behaviour that allows capturing profiles of occupants’ intentions and habits. It seems that there is a missing type of data that could be used as a connection platform for already existing inputs.

To connect existing data sets, there is a need to deploy a monitoring method that can identify particular individuals; however, it must do so while still providing a certain level of privacy among the monitored occupants. Fulfilment of these standards can be achieved through the use of the depth registration technique.

The entertainment industry popularized this registration technique, but this registration method has many other applications in the fields of medicine and computer vision. The most commonly used device (Microsoft Kinect) delivers high-frequency sampling (up to 30 Hz) and a moderate measurement range (up to 5 m), which allows its usage in the monitoring of medium-sized indoor spaces.

The delivered input data do not allow for the direct identification of the monitored person, and it does not require any interaction from the occupants to initialise the monitoring procedure. Due to these reasons, the potential of this measurement method was explored in terms of becoming an in situ indoor occupant behaviour monitoring technique.


Energies,
volume 12,
issue 7,

Abstract

This work introduces a generic methodology to determine the hourly average CO2eq. intensity of the electricity mix of a bidding zone.

The proposed method is based on the logic of input–output models and avails the balance between electricity generation and demand. The methodology also takes into account electricity trading between bidding zones and time-varying CO2eq. intensities of the electricity traded.

The paper shows that it is essential to take into account electricity imports and their varying CO2eq. intensities for the evaluation of the CO2eq. intensity in Scandinavian bidding zones. Generally, the average CO2eq. intensity of the Norwegian electricity mix increases during times of electricity imports since the average CO2eq. intensity is normally low because electricity is mainly generated from hydropower. Among other applications, the CO2eq. intensity can be used as a penalty signal in predictive controls of building energy systems since ENTSO-E provides 72 h forecasts of electricity generation.

Therefore, as a second contribution, the demand response potential for heating a single-family residential building based on the hourly average CO2eq. intensity of six Scandinavian bidding zones is investigated. Predictive rule-based controls are implemented into a building performance simulation tool (here IDA ICE) to study the influence that the daily fluctuations of the CO2eq. intensity signal have on the potential overall emission savings.

The results show that control strategies based on the CO2eq. intensity can achieve emission reductions, if daily fluctuations of the CO2eq. intensity are large enough to compensate for the increased electricity use due to load shifting. Furthermore, the results reveal that price-based control strategies usually lead to increased overall emissions for the Scandinavian bidding zones as the operation is shifted to nighttime, when cheap carbon-intensive electricity is imported from the continental European power grid.


Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments,
volume 31,
pages 228-235,

Abstract

A linear complementarity model is developed and presented for two different electricity market designs comprising an energy-only as well as a capacity market. In addition, storage units are implemented, assessing the impact of the market design on these units.

Results of a case study for northern Europe show that the availability of storage units can have a significant impact on the optimal generation mix to reduce the need for mid-merit and peaking thermal generation capacity. Given a capacity market, the derating of storage technologies creates a bias towards conventional thermal units and has a significant negative impact on the profitability and hence incentive to invest in energy storage units.

Furthermore, due to the vastly different cost characteristics and round-cycle efficiencies, it is found that batteries and pumped hydro energy storage complement each other in the power system instead of reducing each other’s business opportunities.


Master Thesis,
NTNU/Università degli Studi di Genova,

Today more then ever cities have a fundamental role not only from the design point of view but also from the social and economic one. In a century in which “urbanization” has a leading part, it is becoming more and more crucial to start toward a sustainable approach. Cities have to guarantee not only the quality of life for the inhabitants but also a low environmental impact which does not affect the needs of the future generations.

For this purpose, lot of cities in the world are reorganizing and rethinking themselves with the aim of becoming more smart and adapting to changes that could not be reversible. In an historical period in which buildings sector produces the main part of the global emissions and uses about the 40% of the energy source, the attention to the energy behaviour of the construction has assumed an essential importance. For existing buildings the energy simulation has two different advantages: to evaluate the current energy status and their improvement as a result of eventual interventions. Energy simulation has increasingly taken on a dynamic characteristic and
today is a valid tool to implement the existing built. Recently developed tools give the opportunity to estimate the energy behaviour of entire neighbourhoods and cities, giving the chance to evaluate the situation from a global and completely new point of view. The totalitarian approach and not focused on the single building, could be revolutionary and decisive for many cities that are not able to guarantee and pursue the goals regarding the sustainability.


Master Thesis,
NTNU, Trondheim,

Dette vitenskapelige arbeidet er et resultat av Sophie Schönfeldt Karlsens masteroppgave ved Institutt for bygg- og miljøteknikk på NTNU. Fire tariffstrukturer for nettleie, foreslått av NVE, er vurdert for å undersøke hvordan de påvirker økonomiske insentiver for (1) økt energieffektivisering og (2) fleksibel lastflytting i bygg. Energibruk er simulert for en norsk enebolig med en antakelse om at all energibruk er elektrisk. Parametre knyttet til byggstandard, oppvarmingsteknologi, åpning av vinduer, bygningsintegrert energiproduksjon og elbillading er vurdert i 96 ulike simuleringer, og energikostnader er beregnet for de ulike nettleiestrukturene med og uten lastflytting. Resultatene viser generelt at økt energieffektivisering gir billigere strømregning under samtlige tariffstrukturer, og at nettleiestrukturer basert på tidsvarierende effektprising gir dyrere strømregninger for kunder som ikke utfører lastflytting.


Utilities Policy,
volume 58,
pages 63-88,

Abstract

Long-term forecasts of the aggregate electric load profile are crucial for grid investment decisions and energy system planning. With current developments in energy efficiency of new and renovated buildings, and the coupling of heating and electricity demand through heat pumps, the long-term load forecast cannot be based on its historic pattern anymore.

This paper presents part of an on-going work aimed at improving forecasts of the electric load profile on a national level, based on a bottom-up approach. The proposed methodology allows to account for energy efficiency measures of buildings and introduction of heat pumps on the aggregated electric load profile. Based on monitored data from over 100 non-residential buildings from all over Norway, with hourly resolution, this paper presents panel data regression models for heat load and electric specific load separately. This distinction is crucial since it allows to consider future energy efficiency measures and substitution of heating technologies.

The data set is divided into 7 building types, with two variants: regular and energy efficient. The load is dependent on hour of the day, outer temperature and type of day, such as weekday and weekend. The resulting parameter estimates characterize the energy signature for each building type and variant, normalized per floor area unit (m2). Hence, it is possible to generate load profiles for typical days, weeks and years, and make aggregated load forecasts for a given area, needing only outdoor temperature and floor areas as additional data inputs.


Lindberg, K.B., Seljom, P., Madsen, H., Fischer., D. & Korpås, M. (2019) Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends
Utilities Policy,
volume 58,
pages 102-119,

Abstract

Long-term power-system planning and operation, build on expectations concerning future electricity demand and future transmission/generation capacities. This paper reviews current methodologies for forecasting long-term hourly electricity demand on an aggregate scale (regional or nationally), for 10–50 years ahead. We discuss the challenges of these methodologies in a future energy system featuring more renewable energy sources and tighter coupling between the power sector and the building and transport sectors. Finally, we conclude with some recommendations on aspects to be taken into account regarding long-term load forecasts in a changing power system.


ZEN Report 16,
NTNU/SINTEF,

Popular summary in English:

(Scroll nedover for norsk sammendrag)

This report presents results from an ethnographic process carried out by the Research Centre for Zero Emission Neighbourhoods in Smart Cities (ZEN Centre) in collaboration with Steinkjer Municipality in 2017 and 2018. It follows the process of developing a pilot project at Lø in Steinkjer, where a zero emission neighbourhood was planned and which included the upgrading of the old offices of the Norwegian Broadcasting Company in Steinkjer to a zero emission kindergarten. The report describes and analyses the decision-making process and events that took place before March 2018, when the chairmanship of Steinkjer municipality took the decision to demolish the NRK building and build a new kindergarten at Lø. The decision which stopped plans to develop a ZEN pilot project at Lø was based on the wishes of representatives from two kindergartens from Lø, who were to be co-located in the planned zero emission kindergarten.

The process is presented in the form of two main stories. (1) The story about the kindergarten at Lø, where the kindergarten representatives’ reasons for their request for a new, rather than upgraded kindergarten building, are told. (2) The story about the ZEN pilot project in Steinkjer. In this story, the reasons for the enthusiasm for the pilot project by Steinkjer municipality and ZEN researchers are explained. The report asks why two different understandings of the needs of the project were established, and proposes solutions for avoiding disaffection with projects with high energy and environmental ambitions during the early stages of the development process.

In the history of the kindergarten at Lø, there are two main reasons why the kindergarten representatives decided to stop the process of upgrading the NRK building for kindergarten purposes:

1. Prehistory: a lot happened in Lø, around the plans for co-locating the two kindergartens before ZEN became involved.

2. ZEN’s anchoring in Steinkjer municipality: The research centre was known in the Planning and Development Departments, but not beyond that. The representatives from the kindergartens believed that they received too little information about ZEN and about the pilot project development process in general.

During the planning process at Lø, the representatives from the kindergartens experienced that they were not heard, and that the needs of the building users were peripheral to the discussions taking place. When the chairmanship of Steinkjer Municipality took the decision to demolish the old NRK building and build a new kindergarten at Lø, the kindergarten representatives finally felt that user needs were in focus. The kindergarten representatives therefore regarded the story about the process at Lø to be a success story, where user needs were given priority over the needs of the building and pilot project.

For the representatives from the Planning and Development Departments and ZEN researchers the decision to demolish the NRK building was a defeat. They saw no contradiction between the ZEN concept and the kindergarten’s needs and believed that the pilot project at Lø as a fantastic opportunity. However, the municipality and ZEN did not succeed in establishing a common under-standing about what a zero emission kindergarten at Lø would mean in practice that the representatives of the kindergarten were comfortable with. A common understanding about why upgrading of the NRK building was a fantastic opportunity, was never established.

How can we avoid disaffection with ambitious energy and environmental projects?

The user’s needs should be visible from the outset, supported by a thorough and inclusive mapping process that takes place at the start of pilot project development. This will help to avoid, at an early stage, the anchoring of contradictions between everyday needs and ZEN ambitions.

Information about ZEN aims, and ambitions should be available throughout all stages of pilot development, particularly the early phase. Information about ZEN should be easy to understand for wide range of user groups and should clarify why ZEN is a “fantastic opportunity”. A forum where all involved parties can listen, and exchange views should be established.

The challenges faced in Steinkjer are unique. Not all pilot projects in ZEN will require the same measures. However, the mapping of user needs and measures to ensure user involvement will always be good investments, with social value in ZEN neighbourhoods and the municipalities where the neighbourhoods are located. The ZEN Centre and its municipal stakeholders are continuously working on information production and exchange. What is lacking is greater focus on who the target groups are and information that is tailored to different user needs.

Norsk sammendrag:

Denne rapporten presenterer resultater fra en etnografisk prosess utført av Forskningssenteret for nullutslippsområder i smarte byer (FME ZEN) i samarbeid med Steinkjer kommune i 2017 og 2018. Den følger prosessen med å utvikle et pilotprosjekt for nullutslippsområder på Lø i Steinkjer, noe som blant annet innebar å gjøre om NRKs gamle kontorer i Steinkjer til en nullutslippsbarnehage.

Rapporten beskriver og analyserer beslutningsprosessen og hendelsene som skjedde før mars 2018. Da bestemte formannskapet i Steinkjer kommune å rive NRK-bygget og heller bygge en ny barnehage på Lø. Avgjørelsen som stoppet planene om å utvikle et ZEN-pilotprosjekt på Lø var basert på ønskene fra representanter fra de to barnehagene som skulle slås sammen i den planlagte nullutslippsbarne­hagen.

Prosessen presenteres i form av to hovedhistorier. (1) Historien om barnehagen på Lø, hvor begrunnelsene for hvorfor barnehagerepresentantene ønsket en ny snarere enn en oppgradert barnehage blir fortalt. (2) Historien om ZENs pilotprosjekt i Steinkjer. I denne historien forklares årsakene bak kommunens og ZEN-forskernes entusiasme for pilot­prosjektet. Rapporten reiser spørsmålet om hvorfor det oppstod to ulike forståelser av behov i prosjektet, og foreslår løsninger for å unngå misnøye i prosjekter med høye energi- og miljøambisjon­er tidlig i utviklingsprosessen.

I historien om barnehagen på Lø kommer det frem to hovedgrunner til at barnehagerepresentantene bestemte seg for å stoppe prosessen med å oppgradere NRK-bygget til en barnehage:

1. Forhistorie: Det skjedde mye i Lø rundt planene for samlokalisering av de to barnehagene før ZEN ble involvert.

2. ZENs forankring i Steinkjer kommune: Forskningssenteret var kjent i planleggings- og utviklings­avdelingene, men ikke utover det. Representantene fra barnehagene mente de fikk for lite informasjon om ZEN og om utviklingsprosessen av pilotprosjektet generelt.

Under planleggingsprosessen av pilotprosjektet opplevde representantene fra barnehagene at de ikke ble hørt og at brukernes behov var perifere for diskusjonene som fant sted. Da formannskapet i Steinkjer kommune tok avgjørelsen om å rive NRK-bygningen og heller bygge en ny barnehage på Lø, følte barnehagerepresentantene endelig at brukerne var i fokus. Representantene betraktet derfor historien om prosessen ved Lø som en suksesshistorie, der brukernes behov ble prioritert over bygg- og pilotprosjektets behov. For representantene fra plan- og utviklingsavdelingene og ZEN-forskerne var beslutningen om å rive NRK-bygget et nederlag. De så ingen motsetning mellom ZEN-konseptet og barnehagens behov. De så pilotprosjektet på Lø som en fantastisk mulighet. Kommunen og ZEN klarte imidlertid ikke å etablere en felles forståelse for hva en nullutslippsbarnehage på Lø ville bety i praksis som barne­hagenes representanter var komfortable med. De ble altså aldri etablert en felles forståelse for hvorfor oppgradering av NRK-bygget var en fantastisk mulighet.

Hvordan kan vi unngå misnøye med ambisiøse energi- og miljøprosjekter?

Brukernes behov bør synliggjøres fra starten av, støttet opp av en grundig og inkluderende kart­leggingsprosess som gjøres i startsfasen av et pilotprosjekts utvikling. Dette vil bidra til å unngå tidlig forankring av motsetninger mellom hverdagsbehov og ZEN-ambisjoner.Informasjon om ZENs mål og ambisjoner bør være tilgjengelig gjennom alle stadier av prosjektets utvikling, særlig i den tidlige fasen. Informasjon om ZEN skal være lett å forstå for et bredt spekter av brukergrupper og bør avklare hvorfor ZEN er en “fantastisk mulighet”. Et forum hvor alle involverte parter kan lytte og utveksle synspunkter bør etableres.

Utfordringene i Steinkjer er unike. Ikke alle pilotprosjekter i ZEN vil kreve de samme tiltakene. Kartlegging av brukerbehov og tiltak for å sikre brukerengasjement vil imidlertid alltid være gode investeringer, med sosial verdi i ZEN-nabolagene og kommunene hvor disse ligger. ZEN-senteret og dets kommunale interessenter arbeider kontinuerlig med informasjonsproduksjon og -utveksling. Det mangler imidlertid et større fokus på hvem målgruppene er og informasjon som er skreddersydd for ulike brukerbehov.


Technological Forecasting & Social Change,
volume 142,
pages 142-153,

Abstract

The planning of energy ambitious neighborhood pilots in Norway typically begin with the creation of holistic and socially ambitious visions based on extensive stakeholder collaboration, citizen insight generation and vision setting. However, as projects move from planning to implementation, the exploratory innovation methods are replaced by exploitative approaches. ‘The holistic vision and in particular, citizens’ described needs, fail to transfer into the implementation phase.

This paper identifies four main challenges as to why this happens and link these to theory on ambidextrous organizations that need to exploit existing knowledge while reaching into the future with its rapidly changing goals and technological opportunities. Implementing stakeholders are familiar with exploitative tools, which build on earlier experience and capabilities of the selected implementing stakeholders, and the implementation stage leaves little time and resources for innovation on a lower hierarchical level.

While extensive research on smart and integrated planning focus on ‘breaking down the silos’ meaning sectors and disciplines, our findings argue that the need to manage ambidextrous organizations and support both exploratory and exploitative innovation is equally important. An ambidextrous organization is one that has the ability to be efficient in its management of today’s business while being adaptable for coping with the changing demand of tomorrow. We propose a model in which the organizational style and management style of innovative neighborhood pilots focus more on how to transfer knowledge and learn from the bottom-up and horizontally through management that foster both innovation models.


Sandberg, N. H., Næss, J. S., Gustavsen, A., Andresen, I. & Brattebø, H. (2019) Energianalyse for bygningsmassen i Oslo – Scenarioanalyse av energibruk og klimagassutslipp 2009-2040
ZEN Report 14,
NTNU/SINTEF,

Sammendrag

Det sies ofte at det er et stort potensial for energisparing og reduksjon i klimagassutslipp fra energibruk i bygningsmassen. Som innspill til sin oppdaterte klimastrategi ønsker Oslo kommune en forskningsbasert vurdering av potensialet for energisparing og reduksjon av klimagassutslipp fra energibruk i bygningsmassen framover mot 2040.

Bygg som allerede finnes i dag, vil utgjøre en stor andel av bygningsmassen i mange tiår fremover. Det er mulig å redusere energibruken i eksisterende bygg gjennom rehabilitering og energioppgradering. Nybygg bygget i fremtiden vil være langt mer energieffektive enn gjennomsnittlig eksisterende bygningsmasse. Men om disse bygges etter dagens krav, som passivhus eller nullutslippsbygg, har betydning for det samlede framtidige energibehovet. Hvilket omfang kan vi vente oss av framtidig nybygging og rehabilitering, og hva er det samlede potensialet for energisparing og reduksjon i klimagassutslipp fra energibruk i bygningsmassen i Oslo?

Ved bruk av en modell som simulerer bygningsmassens utvikling – gulvareal i ulike bygningstyper, andeler bygget etter eller rehabilitert til ulike tekniske standarder – prøver vi å forstå hvordan Oslos bygningsmasse vil utvikles mot 2040. Trender i bruk av ulike energibærere og omfang av lokal energiproduksjon brukes videre for å estimere det samlede behovet for levert energi til bygningsmassen. Ved bruk av utslippsintensiteter estimerer vi til slutt de totale klimagassutslippene fra energibruk i bygningsmassen i Oslo.

To alternative scenarioer studeres for å vurdere hvilken utvikling som kan forventes; et referansescenario der vi antar en fortsettelse av trender og videre utvikling med gradvis forbedret energitilstand på nybygg og rehabiliterte bygg, og et scenario som ser på hvilke tilleggsbesparelser i energibruk og klimagassutslipp som vil følge av en mer ambisiøs innfasing av nullutslippsbygg, mer energieffektive rehabiliterte bygg og større omfang av lokal energiproduksjon.

Estimerte utslipp av klimagasser fra energibruk avhenger i stor grad av hvilke utslippsintensiteter man velger å bruke for elektrisitet. I denne analysen presenterer vi tre alternative beregningsmetoder der vi antar a) norsk forbruksmiks, b) europeisk forbruksmiks og c) en marginalbetraktning der reduksjoner i norsk forbruk på lang sikt fører til at fossil elektrisitetsproduksjon i Europa reduseres.

Det er et stort potensial for energisparing og reduksjoner i klimagassutslipp ved ambisiøs innfasing av lokal energiproduksjon, nullutslippsbygg og mer energieffektive rehabiliterte bygg i Oslo.

Resultatene viser at selv om det samlede gulvarealet i bygningsmassen i Oslo er ventet å øke med 35 % i perioden 2009-2040, så er levert energi til bygningsmassen i referansescenarioet stabilt i perioden 2020-2040 på grunn av energieffektivisering gjennom nybygging og rehabilitering. Valg av utslippsintensitet har stor betydning for utslippenes størrelse og utvikling sammenliknet med referanseåret 2009. Resultatene viser imidlertid at det uavhengig av beregningsmetode er et stort potensial for energieffektivisering og utslippsreduksjoner. I det ambisiøse scenarioet er både total levert energi og klimagassutslipp fra energibruk i 2040 omtrent 20 % lavere enn i referansescenarioet.


Energies,
volume 12,
issue 5,

Is it possible to supply Norwegian apartment blocks with 4th generation district heating?

4th generation district heating represents the new generation of district heating systems. It reduces heat loss from the grid, enables better use of surplus heat and renewable energy sources, in addition to reducing the strain on the electricity grid. In short, 4th generation district heating is a sustainable solution for supplying heat to Zero Emission Neighbourhoods.

However, there are technical challenges that must be solved before it is introduced. One of them is to determine how low the supply temperature can be in different types of buildings so that we can identify the minimum district heating supply temperature. In our research, we evaluated the minimum supply temperature in Norwegian apartment blocks by improving the thermal envelope and reducing the temperature levels for the heating system. Our analysis focuses on whether the reduced supply temperature guarantees thermal comfort in the building.

Our project implied developing a database of building models representative of Norwegian apartment blocks. The building models consisted of eight age groups and three levels of energy performance. We performed simulations with two different temperature levels for the radiators typical for Norwegian buildings: 80/60 and 60/40 °C.

We found that reducing the supply temperature to the radiators from 80 to 60 °C is possible for buildings newer than from 1970, even for non-renovated buildings. For older buildings, an intermediate renovation, i.e. upgrading the windows, is necessary to maintain temperatures above the minimum acceptable temperature of 19 °C. Still, we highly recommend to perform a more ambitious renovation for these buildings to reduce the number of hours with significantly reduced indoor temperature compared to the setpoint temperature of 22 °C. In addition to reduce the heating demand and thus achieve energy savings, this will also ensure that the occupants are satisfied with their thermal environment.

The results can be used by district heating companies, building owners, contractors and consulting companies, in order to evaluate the introduction of 4th generation district heating in Norwegian apartment blocks. The models and Excel sheets with hourly results for energy need are available for partners and researchers within FME ZEN, so that they could be used for other purposes as well.

By Øystein Rønneseth